Oral Presentation Freshwater Sciences 2023

Dissolving barriers to unleash the power of predictive ecological models for practical management applications (#454)

Katie Irving 1 , Christa Torrens 2 , Kristine Taniguchi-Quan 1 , Eric Stein 1 , Raphael Mazor 1
  1. Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CALIFORNIA, United States
  2. Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, United States

Predictive ecological models are powerful tools that enhance water resource management. They are used to predict water quality shifts, evaluate ecological responses under various anthropogenic stressors, and prioritize locations for conservation and restoration. However, there are practical barriers that limit models’ utility for resource managers. For example, model complexity can make it difficult to interpret and relate output to regulatory compliance; and the models themselves are often perceived as opaque or “black-box” by non-scientists. Current steps to overcome these challenges include developing online applications for ease of use and explicitly demonstrating the uncertainty and limitations of model results. Despite these efforts, there is a need for further advances to increase the practical utility of ecological models for management applications. This presentation aims to: outline current applications of ecological models in water resource management; describe the successes and failures of current efforts; and outline the ‘next steps’ needed to progress modeling science and dissolve barriers to its use for effective resource management.