Uncertainty can be an impediment to decision making and result in delayed decisions or no decision at all. Previous research has shown that environmental flow managers are reluctant to include climate change adaptation in planning due to large knowledge gaps in hydro-ecological relationships.
Using social science methods including hypothetical scenarios and closed ended questions within a survey we investigated ecological trade off decision making behaviours and cognitive processes of environmental flow managers. The hypothetical scenarios were both similar to participants’ past experiences, and others were entirely unprecedented and unfamiliar. When given a choice, the most common response of managers to uncertainty was to gather additional information. However, information is often unavailable or inaccessible – either it does not exist, or uncertainties are considered too great – especially when considering climate change adaptations.
Environmental flow managers must work to adopt robust decision making frameworks that acknowledge uncertainties. Adapting such tools to environmental flow management will ensure managers can begin to consider likely, necessary future trade-offs in a more informed, transparent and robust manner and increase confidence in decision making under uncertainty.