Oral Presentation Freshwater Sciences 2023

Predicting shifts in smallmouth bass distribution due to climate change induced shifts in thermal and hydrological regimes. (#272)

Sarah F Sorensen 1 2 , J. Tyler Fox 1 2 , Dan D Magoulick 1 2 3
  1. Arkansas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA
  2. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA
  3. US Geological Survey, Fayetteville

Climate and environmental changes have led to shifting hydrologic and temperature regimes that are predicted to increasingly impact aquatic systems1,2. Warmer water temperatures, increased flooding in winter and spring, increased drought in summer and fall, and increased land use change are all predicted to impact streams in the Ozark and Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma, USA3. These changes will likely impact fish and invertebrate species as environments surpass species’ ecological thresholds, leading to changes in species distributions and habitat ranges. We collected water temperature, hydrologic flow, land use, and biological species data for streams throughout the Ozark and Ouachita Interior Highlands from state, federal, NGO, and academic sources. Using this data, we quantified the influence of hydrology, temperature, and landscape change and modeled key ecological thresholds for species persistence and distribution. Smallmouth bass are a warm water riverine fish with ecological importance due to their role as a top predator in many lotic systems4. While broadly distributed throughout North America, the Ozark and Ouachita Interior Highlands are the southern extent of their native range, with water temperatures already exceeding their optimal growth temperature5. Changing water temperatures and hydrological patterns from climate change could alter streams in the region to be uninhabitable for smallmouth bass. This study will incorporate identified ecological thresholds of smallmouth bass, critical thermal minima and maxima of smallmouth bass, and predicted changes in climate, hydrology, and land use to model present and future distributions of smallmouth bass throughout the Ozark and Ouachita Interior Highlands. We will predict future distributions of smallmouth throughout the region using Spatial Stream Network analysis, which accounts for spatial autocorrelation and network topology. This research will be important in understanding how species distributions and community composition may shift due to climate and environmental changes.

 

  1. Mims, M.C. and J.D. Olden. 2013. Fish assemblages respond to altered flow regimes via ecological filtering of life history strategies. Freshwater Biology. 58:50-62.
  2. Poff, N.L. 2018. Beyond the natural flow regime? Broadening the hydro-ecological foundation to meet environmental flows challenges in a non-stationary world. Freshwater Biology. 63:1011-1021.
  3. Diffenbaugh, N.S., J.S. Pal, R.J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi. 2005. Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 102:15774-15778.
  4. Rabeni, C.F. 1992. Trophic linkage between stream centrachids and their crayfish prey. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science. 49:1714-1721.
  5. Zweifel, R.D., R.S. Hayward, and C.F. Rabeni. 1999. Bioenergetics insight into black bass distribution shifts in Ozark border region streams. North American Journal of Fisheries Management. 19:192-197.